Government Shutdown as the Catalyst for Civil War?
Post 115
BLUF: September 30th December 20th looms large, as the Federal Government struggles to come up with a budget. Could a shutdown be the pre-planned catalyst for civil unrest?
Introduction:
In a previous note, I suggested that a deliberate government shutdown could halt funding for many subsistence programs, serving as a catalyst for mass social unrest. This would likely be compounded by a coordinated information operation, the involvement of agent provocateurs, and potentially another triggering event.
This article analyzes the number of people likely to be affected by a government shutdown, considering potential duration, current economic conditions, and various social factors. It speculates on the possible outcome—chaos and social disorder.
Charts:
The following charts analyze the potential fallout of a federal government shutdown on various vulnerable groups, considering several key inputs. These include the current economic landscape characterized by rising inflation, decreased middle-class purchasing power, and significant increases in living costs, such as food and housing. Additionally, the analysis factors in the unprecedented migration levels and associated pressures on local resources, as well as the rising crime rates influenced by changes in law enforcement policies. The charts reflect how these conditions can lead to heightened food insecurity, financial distress, and social unrest, particularly as the shutdown prolongs. By synthesizing these elements, the charts provide a comprehensive overview of the likely impact on affected populations.
[Analyst note: graphs were created by AI with my selected data inputs, and a combination of AI and personally researched sources - see references below.]
Civil Unrest Has Long Been Planned:
Civil unrest in the United States appears to have been meticulously planned, as evidenced by numerous think tank reports and tabletop exercises conducted at federal, state, and local levels. These preparations have unfolded under the guise of the April 8th solar eclipse, providing a cover for years of training without drawing significant attention. Concurrently, there is growing legislative momentum toward nationalizing 911 dispatch services and calls for establishing a federal police force, indicating a shift in public safety strategies.
Changes in immigration policies have led to unprecedented migration, including the influx of criminal elements, which adds to societal pressures. The "defund the police" movement, along with vaccine mandates that have reduced law enforcement personnel, further destabilizes community safety. Funding from organizations like the Open Society Foundation has allowed district attorneys to adopt softer approaches to crime, while sanctuary city laws create safe havens for criminal activity. Additionally, zero bail laws and mass prisoner releases during the COVID-19 pandemic have fostered an environment increasingly marked by unrest. Together, these factors suggest a society on the brink of upheaval, raising serious concerns about the potential for widespread civil disorder.
Is Civil War a Planned Event - Like Covid?
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." — John F. Kennedy
Total Eclipse of 2024 - Pending Disaster?
As we approach April 8th, 2024 numerous MSM articles have come out warning populations of school closures, activation of emergency services, possible communication challenges, and to stockpile food, water, and gasoline. This is an unusual response for a solar eclipse.
Predictive Programming:
The information operation surrounding civil unrest and potential civil war has been prominently featured across mainstream media, alternative platforms, and social media, suggesting a coordinated effort to condition and prime the public through predictive programming. This pervasive narrative shapes perceptions and expectations, reflecting a broader strategy that goes beyond mere reporting. From an occult perspective, this can be viewed as a broadcasting ritual aimed at manifesting a desired reality through the use of occult memetics. By embedding specific themes and imagery into popular culture and public discourse, those in power may be attempting to stimulate a collective mindset that aligns with their objectives, thus influencing the trajectory of societal events and unrest.
CIVIL UNREST:
The Threat of Civil Breakdown Is Real - This article from POLITICO discusses the increasing threat of political violence and civil breakdown as the 2024 election approaches.
‘Underanticipated’ US Civil War Concerns Increase - American Military News highlights a study showing growing concerns about a potential U.S. civil war, even among neighboring countries like Canada.
Will the World See More Wars or Unrest in 2024? - ABC News explores regions where civil conflicts or unrest could worsen and potentially lead to violence.
There Is a Risk of Extremist Violence Around the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election - A report from the Council on Foreign Relations warns of the possibility of extremist violence throughout the election cycle.
The Most Dangerous Time in 2024 Will Be Just After the Election - Slate discusses the heightened risk of violence and vigilantism following the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
BLACK SWAN:
What is a Black Swan event and should I be worried? - This article from azcentral.com explains the concept of Black Swan events and discusses their historical context, including the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
‘Black Swan’ events are not so rare - An analysis by ABC News explores whether we could have predicted events like COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, and discusses the increasing frequency of such events.
Improving DOD Adaptability and Capability to Survive Black Swan Events - This article from ndupress.ndu.edu examines how the Department of Defense can better prepare for and adapt to Black Swan events.
ECONOMIC CRISIS:
Recession 2024: What to Watch and How to Prepare - This article from U.S. News outlines the warning signs and risk factors for a potential recession in 2024, including inflation and labor market conditions.
Is the U.S. headed for a recession? Here’s what the experts say. - CBS News provides insights from economists on the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., highlighting recent economic indicators and their implications.
How to prepare for a new economic reality and protect the most vulnerable - The World Economic Forum discusses the global economic outlook and the potential impact of a recession on inequality.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN:
Government shutdown looms after House vote - A from USA Today covers the latest developments in the House of Representatives as they vote on measures to prevent a government shutdown.
Are we headed for a government shutdown? - This article explores the current political climate and the likelihood of a government shutdown, analyzing the key factors at play.
A government shutdown: HHS has a plan - Politico Pulse discusses the contingency plans that the Department of Health and Human Services has in place in the event of a government shutdown.
House rejects bill aimed at averting government shutdown - MSN reports on the recent rejection of a bill in the House that was intended to prevent a government shutdown, detailing the implications of this decision.
Intelligence Analysis:
A potential federal government shutdown in a highly contentious election year presents a significant risk for increased crime and social unrest. Several intersecting factors exacerbate this situation, including unprecedented levels of migration, inflationary pressures, and growing economic distress among the population.
Key Conditions Contributing to Increased Crime and Unrest:
Contentious Election Year: The political climate is already polarized, with heightened tensions among various factions. This divisiveness is likely to amplify discontent during a government shutdown, leading to protests and potentially violent clashes.
Unprecedented Migration: An estimated ten million (plus) recent migrants, many of whom come from countries with high crime rates, may further strain local resources. Reports indicate that some migrants released from prison in their home countries could pose an increased risk of criminal activity. Furthermore, the preponderance of these immigrants are male, aged 18-30, which is one of the top demographics for criminality (IQ also plays a factor, see note). The reliance on migrant subsidies adds to local economic pressures, potentially causing resentment among native populations.
[Analyst note: the number illegal crossings has varied, and often doesn’t take into account those who have crossed undetected or those who have flown in and overstayed their visas. The numbers range from 10 million residing in the US to almost 30 million.1234]
Inflation and Economic Distress:
Cost of Living: Food prices have more than doubled, while home costs have nearly quadrupled. Car and insurance costs have also surged.
Savings and Debt: With savings at historic lows and debt at unprecedented highs, including high levels of credit card debt, many individuals face severe financial pressure. The significant increase in rents and mortgages since the last shutdown adds to this burden, leading to desperation among those unable to meet their obligations.
Rising Crime Rates: Although crime has risen over recent years, the lack of comprehensive data from the FBI complicates the assessment of the current situation. The decline in crime reporting from large and medium-sized cities raises concerns about underreported incidents, particularly as communities grapple with rising violence and theft.
[Analyst note: The U.S. employs two distinct measures of crime. The FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program tracks the number of crimes reported to police each year. In contrast, the Bureau of Justice Statistics conducts the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which interviews 240,000 individuals annually to determine whether they have experienced a crime. This survey aims to estimate the total incidence of crime, both reported and unreported. In 2022, it revealed that only 42% of violent crimes and 32% of property crimes were reported to authorities.
Since 2020, there has been a notable divergence between the FBI's reported crime statistics and the NCVS findings. For instance, while the FBI reported a 2.1% decline in violent crime from 2021 to 2022, the NCVS indicated a significant increase of 29.3% in the same category.567]
Media Influence: The divisive rhetoric from mainstream and alternative media outlets can exacerbate tensions, inciting fear, anger, and distrust. This environment could lead to social unrest, as groups mobilize around perceived injustices, whether related to economic issues or immigration policies.
Potential Black Swan Events:
Unforeseen events, such as power outages, mass internet disruptions, or major geopolitical conflicts, could exacerbate tensions, limit access to resources, and increase vulnerability.
October Surprise - Black Swan Event Incoming?
“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Conclusion:
A federal government shutdown, likely to occur after the upcoming election, coincides with several concurrent developments that could create a perfect storm for unrest. Rising inflation has severely diminished the middle class's ability to afford basic necessities, while increased migration places additional strain on already limited resources. Cities most affected are those with soft laws, defunded police departments, sanctuary status, and high numbers of subsidized migrants. At the same time, crime rates are climbing, exacerbated by reductions in police funding, new district attorneys adopting lenient policies, zero bail laws, and sanctuary city protections.
Further complicating this landscape are extensive federal, state, and local preparations—ongoing for up to two years—for the April 8th solar eclipse, which have involved significant equipment purchases and the militarization of federal forces. Major think tanks have forecast civil unrest, highlighting high levels of societal priming, conditioning, and predictive programming that suggest an impending crisis.
In this context, a government shutdown that cuts off support to vulnerable populations could act as a catalyst for hunger and social chaos. With the spigot that provides for the most needy turned off, the potential for widespread unrest and instability shifts from likely to inevitable.
REFERENCES & FURTHER READING:
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/government-shutdown-military/
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/07/19/what-the-data-says-about-food-stamps-in-the-u-s/
https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-illegal-2200-payment-government-821946727757
https://nlihc.org/sites/default/files/FY19_Shutdown_Factsheet.pdf
https://blog.remitly.com/immigration/federal-and-state-programs-for-immigrant-business-owners/
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2184
http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/11/ImmigrantAccess/Eligibility/ib.shtml
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-house-vote-continuing-resolution-save-act/
https://thehill.com/business/budget/4856504-congress-government-shutdown-complications/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/house-rejects-speaker-johnson-s-government-funding-bill-as-shutdown-deadline-nears/ar-AA1qOc6a
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/will-congress-dodge-a-government-shutdown-funding-push-fails-in-the-house-over-controversial-voting-bill/ar-AA1qNEXa
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/us-government-partial-government-shutdown-deadline-funding-midnight-rcna144746
https://cleverjourneys.com/2022/04/25/list-of-george-soros-owned-district-attorneys/
https://dailycaller.com/2020/08/10/district-attorneys-soros-chicago-philadelphia-suffolk-san-francisco/
https://needtoknow.news/2023/11/california-soros-backed-district-attorney-gets-robbed-becomes-victim-of-her-own-system/
https://nypost.com/2023/07/01/soros-open-society-foundations-to-gut-staff-40/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defund_the_police
https://stateofthenation.co/?p=17113
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/08/us/what-does-defund-police-mean.html
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-does-defund-the-police-mean-and-does-it-have-merit/
https://247wallst.com/special-report/2023/12/16/22-cities-that-defunded-police-and-their-current-crime-rates/
https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-protests-for-racial-justice/2020/06/26/884149659/minneapolis-council-moves-to-defund-police-establish-holistic-public-safety-forc
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/defund-the-police-meaning/
https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-01-02-prisoners-released-because-of-covid.html
https://www.foxnews.com/us/here-is-how-many-prisoners-have-been-released-covid-19
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/covid-19-prisoner-releases-not-mercy-but-justice/
https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/prisoners-released-from-facilities-to-limit-covid-19-spread-arrested-again-for-crimes
https://www.breitbart.com/border/2022/09/18/exclusive-venezuela-empties-prisons-sends-violent-criminals-to-u-s-says-dhs-report/
https://thepostmillennial.com/violent-venezuelan-criminals-join-illegal-immigrant-caravans-after-release-from-prison-report
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2022/09/21/criminals-us-border-n2613385
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/09/americas/nicaragua-political-prisoners-intl-latam/index.html
https://www.state.gov/afghan-arrivals-under-the-u-s-refugee-admissions-program/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11955155/Afghan-refugees-rescued-brought-accused-racist-sexist-tasked-helping.html
https://www.fairus.org/issue/how-many-illegal-aliens-are-united-states-2023-update
https://www.dailysignal.com/2023/10/10/number-of-illegal-aliens-who-entered-us-under-biden-exceeds-population-of-22-states/
https://winepressnews.com/2024/03/28/new-study-estimates-us-has-13-7-million-illegal-aliens-37-increase-since-biden-took-office-larger-than-33-states-individual-populations/
https://cis.org/Report/Estimating-Illegal-Immigrant-Population-Using-Current-Population-Survey
https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-06-20-cities-lying-crime-statistics-fbi.html
https://townhall.com/columnists/johnrlottjr/2024/05/14/the-fbis-crime-data-has-real-problems-n2639030#google_vignette
https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/10/08/the-problem-with-the-fbi-s-missing-crime-data
Considering I just hear someone on another channel reporting from Springfield Ohio. He says he has proof the RINOs in just as deep with the programs guaranteed rents for “newcomers” that can be triple what previous rents were … ingenious scam to hide behind inflation
The premise that civil war is going to happen in the near-term is pure BS. People are both too comfortable and too lazy to do anything about anything. They’ll bitch and moan until the cows come home. It’s all hot air. The only ones active are those on the Left who will continue to take pop-shots at DJT and use every trick in the book to install KH. Well played patriots 🤬.